Equinor's 2026 Buybacks Slashed Amid Persistent Low Oil Prices
Equinor, a major Norwegian energy company, has significantly reduced its 2026 share repurchase target from $5 billion to $1.5 billion, as the impact of lower oil and gas prices continues to affect its earnings. This decision comes despite a slight miss in the company's fourth-quarter earnings estimates, where higher upstream production couldn't fully compensate for the price drops.
In its earnings report, Equinor's adjusted operating income for Q4 2025 was $6.2 billion, influenced by lower liquids prices, partially offset by increased production and stronger gas prices in the U.S. The company's earnings were slightly below the consensus estimate of $1.562 billion and the average analyst estimate of $1.59 billion.
The realized liquids price per barrel in Q4 2025 was $58.6, down from $68.5 in the same period of 2024, while the realized European gas price averaged $10.6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a decline from $13.5. These lower prices overshadowed the rise in realized North American gas prices and a 6% production growth during the quarter.
Despite these challenges, Equinor's full-year production reached a record high of 2.137 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), a 3.4% increase, supported by the newly commissioned Johan Castberg and Halten East fields in Norway. However, the $10 per barrel drop in oil prices and lower European gas prices led to a recalibration of Equinor's buyback pace for 2026, as expected.
Prior to the earnings release, HSBC anticipated Equinor to reduce its annual share repurchases to $2 billion for this year. Equinor confirmed its commitment to using share buybacks for competitive capital distribution but acknowledged that this year's repurchases would be contingent on market conditions and balance sheet strength.
Equinor's CFO, Torgrim Reitan, stated that the company is emerging from a natural gas supercycle, emphasizing that this year marks a normalization period where management must operate within its means. This sentiment suggests a strategic shift in Equinor's approach to buybacks, aligning with the broader industry trend as oil prices remain low.
Analysts predict that other European energy majors might also adjust their share buyback programs downward, given the significant decline in oil prices since the initial announcement of these repurchases. This development highlights the dynamic nature of the energy market and the need for companies to adapt their strategies in response to evolving market conditions.
